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Cyberattack, Malware, Machine Learning, Smart Grid, Decision Tree.

Predicting cyberattacks using machine learning has become imperative since cyberattacks have increased exponentially due to the stealthy and sophisticated nature of adversaries. To have situational awareness and achieve defence in depth, using machine learning for threat prediction has become a prerequisite for cyber threat intelligence gathering. Some approaches to mitigating malware attacks include the use of spam filters, firewalls, and IDS/IPS configurations to detect attacks. However, threat actors are deploying adversarial machine learning techniques to exploit vulnerabilities. This paper explores the viability of using machine learning methods to predict malware attacks and build a classifier to automatically detect and label an event as “Has Detection or No Detection”. The purpose is to predict the probability of malware penetration and the extent of manipulation on the network nodes for cyber threat intelligence. To demonstrate the applicability of our work, we use a decision tree (DT) algorithms to learn dataset for evaluation. The dataset was from Microsoft Malware threat prediction website Kaggle. We identify probably cyberattacks on smart grid, use attack scenarios to determine penetrations and manipulations. The results show that ML methods can be applied in smart grid cyber supply chain environment to detect cyberattacks and predict future trends.